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Kevin's Winter Weather Forecast

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Kevin's Winter Weather Forecast
Snow in the Wabash Valley

It’s time again for my winter forecast!

Each year, I step away from the computers and all the other gadgets and base my forecast on the signs I see in nature. It’s my belief that the Earth, stars, planets, Moon and Sun provide clues to future weather. Many of these clues have been preserved in old sayings and observations called Weatherlore.

My Grandmother taught me the method I use for my winter forecast. It isn’t always correct, but I have fun putting it together. In doing so, I’m reminded of what a marvelous planet we inhabit and further appreciate the messages all life and movements of the heavens may be sending us.

Here are a few observations I’ve made. The impatiens in our yard continued to bloom well into October. That’s a sign of a cold winter. Also, the peak of color for the leaves this fall was late. That’s also a sign of cold. My neighbor’s oak tree absolutely littered the yard with acorns. Lots of acorns usually point to a cold winter. Our apples were tough-skinned this year, another sign of cold. Finally, the squirrels in my neighborhood were busy this fall, possibly pointing to a cold winter.

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On the other hand, I didn’t notice an abundance of walnuts this year. Lots of walnuts indicate a cold winter. I think the fact that I didn’t see an unusual amount of walnuts might mean that the entire winter won’t be too cold.

Weeds along the road were not overly tall this year. Tall weeds can mean a lot of snow. The weeds were about ‘medium’, so I don’t think we’ll be buried in snow all winter. Also, the persimmon seeds I examined had a large mix of knives, spoons and forks.

Here are my conclusions:

  1. The winter will begin cold and stay cold through about the third week of January. In fact, the third week of January could bring the coldest weather of the season. Temperatures in the single digits are possible, but a long stretch of cold weather isn’t likely. Toward the end of January, temperatures will moderate and the winter will end with temperatures at average or a little above.
  2. We’ll have snow, but most of the snow will fall during the first part of the season. We’ll have about a half dozen accumulating snows. The winter will be wet overall, but snow on the ground all season probably isn’t going to happen. In fact, the last part of winter could be downright dreary, wet and gray.

I’ve included calendars where I’ve indicated when it’s possible certain weather events could take place. The dates I’ve chosen were determined by the phases and positions of the Moon and other astronomical data. The dates are meant to be general in nature and not precise.

The deeper I get into observing the Earth and sky, the more fascinated I am by how everything seems to be connected. I believe that the signs we can observe do, indeed, offer a glimpse into the future. I thoroughly enjoy crafting my winter forecast and hope you’ll enjoy following along. Just don’t take it too seriously!

Kevin Orpurt

Kevin's Winter Weather Forecast


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