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Winter and Spring Predictions

The winter season predictions went wrong in some ways, but right in others. Could this be setting up our current weather?

Posted: Mar 9, 2020 6:30 PM

TERRE HAUTE, Ind. (WTHI) - The National Weather Service admits the winter season didn't turn out how they predicted in a lot of ways.

"And going into the winter, there were a lot of weak signals, competing signals, and so the thought was, okay this is what we're going with, but our confidence is not where we normally would like it to be."

Mike Ryan has been at the National Weather Service for years.

He says although many of their predictions were wrong, there were definitely some that hit right where they thought they would.

"First half of the winter kinda went according to form. We thought there was gonna be some cold weather in November and into early December, and then it was gonna modify as we got later into December. That did happen, everybody remembers how warm it was on Christmas day."

But the second half of winter is where things really got different.

"And then as we got after the new year, things changed. We expected kind of a transition back to steadier cold and that never really happened. And the main reason for that was, believe it or not, had to do with the polar vortex."

What some people may not know, is a strong polar vortex brings us weather like we had this year, and not as much extreme cold.

That's how the winter is setting up spring to potentially be very active.

"But the signs are pointing more towards a warmer month of march, continuing the warmth we've had, compared to average. And after a relatively quiet period here for the next ten days or so, I think we're gonna start to get more active again."

Severe weather preparedness week is coming March 15th through 21st.

The Storm Team will be bringing you more that week.

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