Long Term Forecasting

The storm team sometimes gets questions like "what's the weather going to be like in a week"? That can be hard to answer sometimes. Here's why.

Posted: Mar 11, 2019 6:10 PM
Updated: Mar 11, 2019 6:10 PM

TERRE HAUTE, Ind. (WTHI) - When it comes to forecasting, each kind of weather has different challenges.

However, the farther out we try to forecast, the less accurate it can be.

The reason is actually simpler than you think.

For this example, we're going to talk about snowfall.

While it can be the hardest to forecast, these same rules apply for all kinds of weather...Thunderstorms, rain, flooding, and even tornadoes.

When we forecast, we look at multiple different models.

Each gives its best idea about what the atmosphere will do.

Even though we have many different options, each model only gives us one conclusion.

That can make things hard because the smallest of changes can make the biggest difference. The atmosphere could change once, and the forecast could change from a dusting of snow to six or eight inches of accumulation.

The closer we get to a weather event, particularly severe weather, the more accurate of a forecast we'll have.

Again, this doesn't just apply to snow.

Here in the next few weeks, we'll be dealing with thunderstorms and tornadoes.

These events are very time sensitive, and Storm Team 10 always tracks them down to the minute.

If you have any weather related questions that you want to hear from Storm Team 10 about, just email us, or shoot us a question on our social media and we'll be happy to explain them on air and online.

Terre Haute
Clear
77° wxIcon
Hi: 92° Lo: 70°
Feels Like: 78°
Robinson
Clear
72° wxIcon
Hi: 91° Lo: 68°
Feels Like: 72°
Indianapolis
Scattered Clouds
81° wxIcon
Hi: 91° Lo: 71°
Feels Like: 84°
Rockville
Clear
69° wxIcon
Hi: 93° Lo: 70°
Feels Like: 69°
Casey
Few Clouds
78° wxIcon
Hi: 92° Lo: 70°
Feels Like: 80°
Brazil
Clear
77° wxIcon
Hi: 92° Lo: 70°
Feels Like: 78°
Marshall
Clear
77° wxIcon
Hi: 91° Lo: 69°
Feels Like: 78°
Hot and humid with scattered pop-up storms this evening
WTHI Planner
WTHI Temps
WTHI Radar

Latest Video

Image

Danger inside hot cars

Image

More stray pets reported over holiday weekend

Image

Brazil Concert Band returns to the stage

Image

4-H auction goes virtual

Image

Volunteers needed for food program

Image

Restaurants welcome in customers over holiday weekend

Image

Sunday Morning Forecast Update

Image

Illinois Lottery closing claims centers temporarily

Image

Travel safely this holiday

Image

Rubber Duck Regatta winner to donate portion of prize

WTHI Events

 

Illinois Coronavirus Cases

(Widget updates once daily at 7 p.m. CT)

Confirmed Cases: 146612

Reported Deaths: 7014
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Cook922404622
Lake9919423
DuPage9267475
Kane7819275
Will6883320
Winnebago308496
McHenry210397
St. Clair1988137
Kankakee130465
Rock Island101829
Madison100769
Kendall98921
Champaign93912
Boone60821
DeKalb57219
Peoria55128
Sangamon44632
Jackson33619
Randolph2887
Stephenson2765
McLean27313
Ogle2694
Clinton24117
Macon23422
LaSalle22517
Union19419
Whiteside19315
Coles17217
Grundy1715
Iroquois1615
Tazewell1498
Warren1430
Knox1370
Cass1367
Morgan1303
Monroe12913
Williamson1264
Adams1131
Jefferson10617
McDonough10215
Lee1012
Henry951
Vermilion772
Pulaski760
Marion690
Perry561
Macoupin553
Douglas540
Livingston522
Montgomery481
Jasper477
Unassigned470
Christian454
Jo Daviess451
Ford371
Jersey351
Woodford352
Bureau302
Franklin280
Menard240
Fayette233
Mercer230
Alexander220
Carroll222
Mason220
Wabash220
Washington210
Johnson200
Piatt200
Hancock191
Moultrie190
Shelby191
Crawford180
Effingham171
Logan170
Bond161
Cumberland160
Clark150
Fulton150
Massac150
Wayne141
Schuyler130
De Witt110
Brown100
Edgar100
Marshall100
Greene90
Saline90
Henderson80
Lawrence70
White60
Hamilton50
Richland40
Stark40
Pike30
Clay20
Edwards20
Gallatin20
Calhoun10
Hardin10
Pope10
Putnam10
Scott10
Out of IL00

Indiana Coronavirus Cases

(Widget updates once daily at 8 p.m. ET)

Confirmed Cases: 47432

Reported Deaths: 2687
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Marion11546683
Lake5104242
Elkhart321144
Allen2737129
St. Joseph190866
Cass16389
Hamilton1538100
Hendricks1390100
Johnson1256118
Porter72037
Tippecanoe6948
Madison65564
Clark64044
Bartholomew58244
Howard56557
LaPorte56326
Kosciusko5354
Vanderburgh5026
Marshall4823
Jackson4693
Noble46928
LaGrange4677
Hancock44035
Boone43743
Delaware43150
Shelby42325
Floyd37144
Morgan32731
Montgomery29320
Grant29126
Clinton2882
Monroe27628
Dubois2666
White26010
Henry25815
Decatur24932
Lawrence24225
Vigo2318
Dearborn22823
Harrison21222
Warrick21229
Greene18532
Miami1822
Jennings17411
Putnam1688
DeKalb1604
Scott1607
Daviess14216
Orange13623
Wayne1366
Steuben1282
Perry1279
Franklin1248
Ripley1157
Jasper1142
Wabash1122
Carroll1102
Fayette987
Newton9810
Starke923
Whitley905
Randolph784
Huntington742
Jefferson722
Wells711
Fulton691
Jay680
Washington681
Gibson672
Knox640
Pulaski641
Clay604
Rush563
Adams501
Benton480
Owen471
Sullivan441
Brown381
Posey380
Blackford372
Spencer371
Crawford300
Fountain302
Tipton301
Switzerland260
Martin220
Parke220
Ohio140
Vermillion140
Warren141
Union130
Pike100
Unassigned0193