Long Term Forecasting

The storm team sometimes gets questions like "what's the weather going to be like in a week"? That can be hard to answer sometimes. Here's why.

Posted: Mar 11, 2019 6:10 PM
Updated: Mar 11, 2019 6:10 PM

TERRE HAUTE, Ind. (WTHI) - When it comes to forecasting, each kind of weather has different challenges.

However, the farther out we try to forecast, the less accurate it can be.

The reason is actually simpler than you think.

For this example, we're going to talk about snowfall.

While it can be the hardest to forecast, these same rules apply for all kinds of weather...Thunderstorms, rain, flooding, and even tornadoes.

When we forecast, we look at multiple different models.

Each gives its best idea about what the atmosphere will do.

Even though we have many different options, each model only gives us one conclusion.

That can make things hard because the smallest of changes can make the biggest difference. The atmosphere could change once, and the forecast could change from a dusting of snow to six or eight inches of accumulation.

The closer we get to a weather event, particularly severe weather, the more accurate of a forecast we'll have.

Again, this doesn't just apply to snow.

Here in the next few weeks, we'll be dealing with thunderstorms and tornadoes.

These events are very time sensitive, and Storm Team 10 always tracks them down to the minute.

If you have any weather related questions that you want to hear from Storm Team 10 about, just email us, or shoot us a question on our social media and we'll be happy to explain them on air and online.

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Terre Haute
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