US coronavirus death toll passes 90,000 but influential model lowers its prediction

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New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo got a coronavirus test during his daily news briefing, saying "it is so fast and so easy that even the governor can take this test."

Posted: May 18, 2020 11:06 AM
Updated: May 18, 2020 10:00 PM


A key coronavirus model has revised its death projection for the United States slightly downward, now forecasting that 143,360 people will die by August 4.

That's about 3,700 fewer deaths than the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IMHE) model foresaw when last updated about a week ago.

The news comes as the coronavirus death toll in the United States has passed another somber milestone. More than 90,000 people now have died, and more than 1.5 million people have been infected, according to Johns Hopkins University data.

The shift in the model's fatalities forecast is small, but it marks a departure from recent increases in the model's death projections, which have been largely based on increases in mobility across the country and the easing of social distancing measures.

As people have been moving around more -- and as social distancing measures have been relaxed -- the model has projected more deaths.

But one researcher at the IHME at the University of Washington, who program the model, said that fewer people are forecasted to die in certain parts of the country.

'We were pretty surprised,' said Chris Murray, the chairman of the school's Health Metrics Sciences department. 'We were expecting to probably go up because of the big surge in mobility.'

Murray told CNN's Anderson Cooper that they didn't find a correlation between mobility and deaths.

They believe the difference lies in the number of individuals wearing masks and that people are being careful to keep their distance from others.

Submit your questions about school during the pandemic

Good news emerges from a vaccine trial

As research teams scramble to create or test vaccines, one company announced a milestone in its progress Monday.

The biotech company Moderna said eight trial participants developed neutralizing antibodies to coronavirus. Neutralizing antibodies bind to the virus, disabling it from attacking human cells.

If future studies go well, the company's vaccine could be available to the public as early as January, said Moderna Chief Medical Officer Dr. Tal Zaks.

But the results of the study, which was led by the National Institutes Health, have not been peer reviewed. And there's much more work to be done, Zaks said.

'We are going to have to conduct formal efficacy trials where you vaccinate many, many people, and then you monitor them in the ensuing months to make sure they don't get sick,' he said.

The announcement was one of Monday's developments that prompted President Donald Trump to call it 'a very big day therapeutically, cure-wise and vaccine-wise.'

The President later told reporters he has been taking the drug hydroxychloroquine for a couple of weeks. Trump, who had tested negative for the coronavirus, said he heard positive things about the drug.

'Because I think it's good; I've heard a lot of good stories. And if it's not good, I'll tell you right. I'm not going to get hurt by it,' he said.

Millions more can go to the gym and retail stores

On Monday, Massachusetts became the 49th state to be fully or partially reopened. Gov. Charlie Baker said he's allowing manufacturing and construction sites to reopen immediately.

'We've all been doing our jobs to fight (coronavirus), and as a result, positive case rates are moving in the right direction and hospitalizations are down,' Baker said.

All public transportation riders in the Boston area must continue wearing face masks. Baker said more sectors of the economy will be allowed to open in phases, with the next one starting May 25.

Florida entered its first full phase of reopening Monday, allowing restaurants, retail stores and gyms across the state to reopen with certain restrictions.

California, the first state to issue a statewide stay-at-home order, is now in its second of four reopening phases.

'I deeply understand the stress and anxiety that people have, that entire dreams have been torn asunder because of the shutdowns, their savings account depleted and their credit ratings destroyed,' Gov. Gavin Newsom said.

Texas, one of the first to start reopening, had its highest single-day increase in new cases over the weekend. Restaurants, movie theaters and malls have been open for more than two weeks, but the governor has attributed an increase in coronavirus cases to more testing.

Why it'll take weeks to see the health effects of reopening

And in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and Delaware, beaches will be open for Memorial Day weekend, with restrictions.

But with greater freedoms come more responsibilities to prevent a resurgence of coronavirus -- which would lead to another blow to the economy.

That includes wearing masks in public, Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine said.

'About 90% of our economy is back open because we thought it was a huge risk not to reopen,' DeWine said Sunday.

If the situation gets worse, 'we're prepared to do what we have to do to pull back,' he said.

'We don't want to be like some of the other countries we've seen where they shut down, opened up, and now are starting to shut down again,' DeWine said. 'And it's in everyone's collective hands how we act in the next month or two, whether or not we're going to be in that position.'

In Georgia, Gov. Brian Kemp also said the state will keep tracking the numbers and 'will take whatever action is necessary to protect the lives and the livelihoods of all Georgians.'

Connecticut on Wednesday will be the last state to start reopening. Officials announced a website with 'strict safety guidelines' that businesses must meet before reopening.

Where each state stands in the reopening process

Testing increases, but so do concerns about accuracy

Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar said the US has conducted more than 10 million coronavirus tests, and the federal government is deploying rapid tests to meatpacking facilities and nursing homes.

But there are new concerns about the accuracy of some diagnostic tests, which are supposed to determine whether someone currently has the virus.

AdventHealth said about 35,000 coronavirus tests -- 33,000 of which were conducted in Florida -- have been deemed unreliable because problems at a processing lab.

AdventHealth declined to name the lab, but said it was 'working diligently' to notify people who may be affected.

The news comes after concerns about the accuracy of antibody tests, which are supposed to tell whether you've been exposed to the virus in the past.

Health officials stress that it's too early to know whether having coronavirus antibodies means you have long-term immunity against a second infection -- or if you have immunity at all.

Your coronavirus questions, answered

Highest rate of cases? Navajo Nation

The Navajo Nation, with the rate of 2,304.41 cases of Covid-19 cases per 100,000 people, has surpassed New York and New Jersey for the highest per-capita infection rate.

There are at least 4,002 infections in the Navajo Nation, which spans parts of Arizona, New Mexico, and Utah.

The Native American territory had a population of 173,667, according to the 2010 census.

The president of the Navajo Nation, Jonathan Nez, attributed the virus' spread among his people to close living conditions and the area being a 'food desert.'

'Most of our food and supplies come from the 13 shopping centers, convenience stores, and gas stations throughout the Navajo,' Nez said

He added the Nation was also testing for coronavirus at a higher rate than states.

Indiana Coronavirus Cases

(Widget updates once daily at 8 p.m. ET)

Confirmed Cases: 31715

Reported Deaths: 1984
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Marion9189533
Lake3299167
Cass15826
Allen127766
St. Joseph117034
Hendricks112367
Hamilton109992
Johnson1082104
Elkhart100827
Madison58258
Porter48721
Bartholomew48033
Clark45838
LaPorte40821
Tippecanoe3733
Jackson3611
Howard35618
Delaware35434
Hancock31927
Shelby31421
Floyd31338
Boone28235
Morgan26124
Vanderburgh2482
Montgomery22717
White2268
Decatur22431
Clinton2151
Noble18520
Grant18520
Harrison18521
Dubois1822
Greene16723
Warrick16426
Dearborn16221
Monroe16010
Henry1597
Vigo1477
Lawrence14322
Miami1391
Putnam1337
Jennings1274
Orange12422
Scott1183
Ripley1126
Franklin1068
Carroll922
Kosciusko861
Daviess8216
Steuben792
Newton7410
Wabash722
Wayne695
Fayette654
Marshall641
LaGrange602
Jasper561
Washington521
Fulton471
Rush452
Jay430
Jefferson411
Randolph403
Pulaski390
Clay391
Whitley392
Brown331
Sullivan321
Starke313
Owen311
DeKalb291
Perry270
Huntington262
Benton250
Knox240
Crawford230
Wells230
Tipton221
Blackford201
Switzerland190
Fountain182
Parke170
Posey170
Spencer161
Gibson142
Ohio130
Adams121
Warren121
Vermillion90
Martin90
Union80
Pike60
Unassigned0152

Illinois Coronavirus Cases

(Widget updates once daily at 7 p.m. CT)

Confirmed Cases: 112017

Reported Deaths: 4885
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Cook730973324
Lake7723250
DuPage7207340
Kane5761152
Will5188258
Winnebago195351
McHenry142767
St. Clair99172
Kankakee79942
Kendall71419
Rock Island63622
Champaign5647
Madison53954
Boone39716
Sangamon33126
DeKalb3253
Randolph2593
Jackson22810
McLean21110
Ogle1922
Stephenson1902
Macon18819
Peoria1797
Clinton17716
Out of IL1641
Union1417
LaSalle14012
Whiteside13410
Iroquois1304
Coles1169
Warren1140
Unassigned1100
Jefferson10116
Knox940
Monroe9211
Grundy892
McDonough835
Lee771
Cass670
Henry670
Tazewell673
Williamson551
Marion500
Jasper457
Adams441
Macoupin411
Perry410
Pulaski400
Montgomery391
Vermilion391
Morgan341
Christian334
Livingston312
Douglas270
Jo Daviess270
Fayette202
Ford201
Jersey201
Washington180
Mason170
Menard170
Woodford172
Shelby161
Bureau151
Mercer150
Carroll132
Hancock130
Franklin120
Crawford110
Fulton110
Piatt110
Bond101
Brown100
Clark100
Cumberland100
Logan100
Moultrie100
Schuyler100
Wayne91
Alexander80
Henderson80
Johnson70
Massac70
Saline70
Effingham61
Greene50
Marshall50
De Witt40
Lawrence40
Richland30
Stark30
Clay20
Edwards20
Gallatin20
Hamilton20
Wabash20
White20
Calhoun10
Hardin10
Pike10
Pope10
Putnam10
Edgar00
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