CNN Poll: Democratic advantage grows in race for Congress

Democrats now lead Republicans by 52% to 41% in a nationwide generic Congressional ballot according to a new...

Posted: Aug 16, 2018 12:37 PM
Updated: Aug 16, 2018 12:37 PM

Democrats now lead Republicans by 52% to 41% in a nationwide generic Congressional ballot according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS and released Tuesday. The blue lead has increased slightly from eight percentage points in June of this year to an 11 percentage point difference in the most recent poll.

Despite Democrats' advantage on that measure, a plurality (48%) in the same poll believe Republicans will maintain control of Congress after the election, compared with 40% who believe Democrats will gain control.

Donald Trump

Elections (by type)

Elections and campaigns

Government and public administration

Government organizations - US

Political Figures - US

Political organizations

Politics

US Congress

US Democratic Party

US Federal elections

US political parties

US Republican Party

Continents and regions

Eastern Europe

Europe

Investigations

Russia

Russia meddling investigation

Among those who favor the Democratic candidate in their district, 64% say they think Democrats will ultimately win control of Congress, while among those backing Republican candidates, 83% think the GOP will maintain control.

Compared to previous elections, 68% of registered voters say they're more enthusiastic to vote in this election than in the past. Registered Democrats and Republicans report being more excited to vote at similar levels, with 70% and 68% saying so, respectively.

However, Democrats have taken a much higher leap in enthusiasm vs. 2016 than Republicans. When CNN last asked the question, in September 2016, only 38% of Democrats said they were "more enthusiastic," while 48% of Republicans said the same. Registered Democrats jumped 32-points since 2016 and Republicans moved 20-points.

Health care is key

Health care tops the list of important issues voters will consider this fall with 81% saying it's extremely or very important to their vote for Congress, followed very closely by the economy (80%).

Immigration is on the rise as a critical issue -- from 38% in May to 44% now. However, the issue's overall importance hasn't increased substantially.

Gun policy remains a deeply important issue for almost three quarters of Americans (73% call it extremely or very important to their vote), and corruption -- an issue newly in the spotlight following Rep. Chris Collins' arrest on insider trading charges -- outpaces trade policy and taxes in importance to voters (74% call corruption extremely or very important vs. 64% on trade policy and 71% on taxes).

Beyond those issues, Trump and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi -- two politicians who are the subject of many a campaign ad this cycle -- provoke very different reactions. Most voters, 68%, say that Trump will be an important factor in their vote this fall, while only about a third (34%) feel the same way about Pelosi.

The Russia factor

The investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election is climbing as a relevant issue for voters, the percentage calling it at least very important has increased by five points since May.

That rising concern comes as a majority of Americans see foreign interference as likely in this fall's elections. Six-in-ten say it's very or somewhat likely that a foreign government will interfere in the US elections this fall with only 37% saying it's not too likely or not likely at all. There are sharp differences by party on this question, with 35% of Republicans seeing foreign meddling with US congressional elections as likely, well below expectations among Democrats (83% likely) or independents (56% likely).

If a foreign government were to meddle in US elections, almost three-quarters say it would be a crisis or major problem. Almost three in 10, 28%, think it would be a crisis, 46% a major problem, 16% a minor problem, and 8% believe it wouldn't be a problem at all.

A plurality of every single demographic group viewed hypothetical meddling by a foreign government in US elections as a major problem, including those who approve of President Trump's job performance at 43%.

Those most likely to view hypothetical foreign meddling in US elections as a crisis are those who disapprove of Trump (42%), Democrats (41%), and women (36%).

Most don't know about QAnon

The group QAnon, which has become a regular presence at Trump's rallies in recent weeks, hasn't made an impression on most Americans. About two-thirds (65%) say they haven't heard anything at all about it, and another 19% have heard of it but don't know enough to have an opinion on it. The impressions it has made are largely negative: 12% say they have a negative impression of the group vs. just 2% who hold it in a positive light.

College graduates and Democrats are the most likely to have heard a great deal or just some about QAnon, but no demographic subgroup had a positive impression of them.

The CNN poll was conducted by SSRS August 9-12 among a random national sample of 1,002 adults and 921 registered voters reached on landlines or cellphones by a live interviewer. Results for the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points, it is larger for subgroups.

Terre Haute
Scattered Clouds
88° wxIcon
Hi: 86° Lo: 64°
Feels Like: 92°
Robinson
Clear
85° wxIcon
Hi: 87° Lo: 63°
Feels Like: 93°
Indianapolis
Scattered Clouds
87° wxIcon
Hi: 85° Lo: 66°
Feels Like: 88°
Rockville
Scattered Clouds
83° wxIcon
Hi: 86° Lo: 63°
Feels Like: 84°
Casey
Clear
86° wxIcon
Hi: 85° Lo: 64°
Feels Like: 92°
Brazil
Scattered Clouds
88° wxIcon
Hi: 87° Lo: 64°
Feels Like: 92°
Marshall
Scattered Clouds
88° wxIcon
Hi: 87° Lo: 64°
Feels Like: 92°
Partly cloudy to mostly clear. A few pop-up showers expected
WTHI Planner
WTHI Temps
WTHI Radar

WTHI Events

 

Illinois Coronavirus Cases

(Widget updates once daily at 7 p.m. CT)

Confirmed Cases: 201727

Reported Deaths: 7905
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Cook1137884943
Lake13047450
DuPage12592523
Kane10027305
Will9576347
St. Clair4215162
Winnebago3814134
McHenry3308114
Madison285579
Kankakee182969
Rock Island179638
Peoria175837
Champaign172919
Kendall143123
Unassigned1382209
Sangamon134533
DeKalb96031
LaSalle87828
Boone77023
Jackson74320
McLean70315
Macon70223
Tazewell6129
Adams5817
Coles54621
Randolph4957
Williamson4777
Clinton43317
Ogle4215
Whiteside36817
Grundy3535
Union33723
Stephenson3366
Monroe33413
Knox3311
Jefferson31720
Morgan2916
Iroquois27412
Henry2661
Vermilion2572
Bureau2473
Cass24511
Macoupin2093
Franklin2051
Warren1960
Perry1933
Effingham1921
Lee1861
Logan1791
Montgomery1757
Woodford1723
Marion1680
McDonough14715
Christian1444
Jersey1412
Jo Daviess1361
Livingston1343
Saline1342
Douglas1333
Pulaski1011
Moultrie1000
Shelby922
Clark882
Mercer774
White750
Fayette733
Hancock721
Johnson710
Washington691
Bond683
Carroll684
Wayne672
Greene660
Piatt650
Jasper617
Cumberland603
Mason580
Menard580
Ford522
Lawrence520
Gallatin512
Wabash440
Massac430
Alexander370
Fulton370
De Witt340
Marshall330
Clay310
Crawford310
Hamilton310
Edgar300
Pike300
Scott280
Edwards240
Richland240
Schuyler190
Hardin180
Brown150
Henderson150
Putnam130
Calhoun120
Pope110
Stark70
Out of IL30

Indiana Coronavirus Cases

(Widget updates once daily at 8 p.m. ET)

Confirmed Cases: 77565

Reported Deaths: 3105
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Marion16304733
Lake7840283
Elkhart499287
Allen4103164
St. Joseph368183
Hamilton2941104
Vanderburgh208215
Hendricks1972109
Cass18099
Johnson1800119
Porter139139
Clark133350
Tippecanoe126312
Madison104866
LaPorte95730
Howard93865
Kosciusko87212
Bartholomew84447
Floyd83750
Marshall80123
Monroe77732
Delaware76852
Vigo75213
Dubois71812
Noble70829
Boone70446
Hancock69439
Jackson6065
Warrick60030
Shelby57228
LaGrange56910
Grant53230
Dearborn52228
Morgan49235
Henry46020
Clinton4564
Wayne40210
White38011
Montgomery36321
Lawrence35827
Harrison35524
Decatur34732
Putnam3288
Daviess28420
Miami2792
Scott27810
Jasper2592
Greene25634
Franklin24915
Gibson2434
DeKalb2424
Jennings23212
Ripley2208
Steuben2173
Fayette2057
Carroll2033
Perry18813
Posey1810
Starke1817
Orange17924
Wabash1795
Wells1782
Fulton1742
Jefferson1722
Knox1681
Whitley1606
Tipton15416
Sullivan1521
Washington1481
Clay1415
Spencer1393
Randolph1325
Huntington1303
Newton12110
Adams1202
Owen1101
Jay940
Rush914
Pulaski841
Fountain762
Brown752
Blackford662
Pike660
Ohio656
Benton630
Vermillion610
Parke591
Switzerland560
Martin500
Crawford480
Union410
Warren251
Unassigned0207