David Wire's Winter Forecast

This winter we are entering a weak to moderate La Nina pattern which will have an impact on our winter weather.

First off, we determine the strength of the La Nina or El Nino by looking at sea surface temperatures in the equatorial region of the Pacific Ocean off the western coast of South America.

This year the water temperatures in this region are colder than normal. Consequently, if the waters were to be warmer we would call that an El Nino pattern.

While this phenomenon of El Nino/La Nina has global effects we're more interested in the regional effects of the Wabash Valley.

This year is shaping up to be very similar to the winter of 2010-11 with respects to wild temperature swings and a more active precipitation pattern. It looks to be different than last winter because the threat for widespread ice looks to not settle directly overhead of the Wabash Valley but just to our south over the Tennessee Valley.

While some rain, snow, and ice mixtures will occur, the devastating accumulating ice from last winter looks to stay away.

Overall, this winter is looking to settle into a cold pattern relatively quickly but holding off on the frequent precipitation events until January and February of 2012.

In summary, this years La Nina pattern looks to bring us a slightly colder than average winter with above average snowfall. Our average snowfall is around 18 inches and this year looks to bring us near the 20 inch snowfall mark.

For the printable version of Dave’s Winter Weather Forecast, click here.