Expert Predicts Presidential Race

TERRE HAUTE, Ind. (WTHI) - The 2012 General Election is under a week away and by next Tuesday night we'll know who will be the next president of the United States.

But, that hasn't stopped experts from trying to predict the outcome before you hit the polls.

We found a local expert who says he know who is going to win and by how much.

The speculation begins as the polls close Tuesday night. That is, unless you're a political scientist like Carl Klarner.

Every four years Klarner begins speculating before any votes are cast. But what he has is more than just a hunch, he's created a predicting model.

"Of all the published models that this journal that publishes this forecasting symposium I had the most accurate model,” he said referring to his 2008 Prediction Model.

That year he was off by only three states, but still had President Obama winning.

“(There are) two major components of theory: one is people reward good outcomes and they punish bad outcomes. The second theory is that people are more moderate or swing voters are more moderate and they want more moderate policy,” he explains.

Using that theory Klarner measures each state individually with a combination of economic factors and local government elections.

Once he has decided what direction a state will go, he plugs that onto his Electoral College map.

Some states are no brainers, but predicting which way swing states will go is what makes his model so interesting.

So here's what you're probably wondering: what does his model say for this year?

"The overall prediction is that Obama will get 51.3 percent of the vote and he has a 57 percent chance of winning the popular vote,” he said.

That gives the President 301 electoral votes. But, his theory gets put to the test the same night the President does; Election night.

To read his report click here scroll down to Klarner article.

Here are some interesting thoughts on the 2012 General Election