Sept. unemployment numbers drop to 7.8 percent, critics question

TERRE HAUTE, Ind. (WTHI) - New job numbers show more Americans are finding work, but local economists say the numbers are conflicting.

The September Unemployment Report showed the first drop below 8 percent in four years.

The numbers come with their fair share of criticism.

The reported 7.8 percent unemployment is the lowest since President Obama took office.

That should be good news on the job front, but one local economist found the all those numbers don't add up.

Indiana State University (ISU) economist Robert Guell provided his analysis of the numbers.

He said that the Bureau of Labor Statistics completes two surveys for employment:

1. First, they ask households of unemployed Americans whom among them found jobs;
2. the second, they ask employers and government agencies how many people they’ve hired.

According to the first survey, 800,000 Americans landed a job in September.

It’s a fairly palpable number to the ordinary person, but Guell remains skeptical.

"I never uncritically look at numbers. And, after looking and reflecting on these, this is the oddest unemployment report I have ever seen,” stated Guell.

Here's what he finds concerning.

The second survey lists employers and government agencies hired just over 100,000 people.

That number still leaves nearly 700,000 workers to account for.

That's what left some high-powered conservatives claiming the Obama administration falsified information.

Guell isn't saying that, but he is wondering about the arithmetic used when finding these numbers.

"It doesn't add up. There's something in the combination that's strange. I don't take the Jack Welsh, Donald Trump approach that the Obama Administration must have cooked the books. I don't think they did that ,” said Guell.

His explanation is a little simpler.

The difference is explained by simple survey construction.

"Two surveys that are asking different people different questions—and because of survey sampling error you are always going to have—the chance that one poll, which is essentially what it is: one poll, doesn't match another poll," said Guell.

Of the two polls, Guell says he is more inclined to follow the employer survey where only 120,000 people were hired.

He believes that matches up more accurately with other economic indicators like the Gross Domestic Product.

Following that poll, the United States is currently battling 8 percent unemployment.

The state unemployment numbers for September will be released on the October 19.